If you're not concerned about being "the best as fast as possible", then the 70% chance is the best way to go. I don't agree with this statement of yours: Many aspects of an RPG (which this game kind-of is) are built around the delicate psychology of perceptible progress, manageable challenges, etc. I agree that the psychology of failing strongly influences players. That being said, the 100% also does rarely give forge prize boxes, so it depends how much you value the added bonuses those give. If your gamer instinct is what's leading you, then the 100% is the only option for radiants. Each time you fail and lose 90 radiant fire crystals, that's a massive loss despite statistically it evening out over time. Each time you reforge your gear successfully, it's a "win". Each time you find a radiant fire crystal, it's a "win". RNG to gamer psych = "I need to win", while the actual game is "I work to win". A statistician knows that it's better to buy any RNG item in the game, outside of fire crystals, but a gamer feels rewarded by success and downtrodden by failure if it's not something they can control. Gamer psych and statistics psych are two different things entirely. For all other fire crystals, this isn't really a problem, but it is hard and very time consuming to obtain 453 radiants in the first place, so each time you fail with them it stings more than the ensured 33 more does to farm. You can either lose ~33 radiants per item, but never pay more than 453 for an item, or you can save 33 radiants on average, and pay over 453 radiants for some items. The big difference is really the time investment involved. So the game designers don't need to make the chances worse than the stated 70%. But most players on the forums still roll at 100%, because they can't stand the disappointment of a failed forging. I've been trying to convince players to roll at 70% chances for years. I was wondering whether the non-guaranteed rolls are not at face value to try convince players to roll at 100%, spending more FC per forge than one could otherwise get away with.įor what it's worth, it seems that the statistics have little effect on player psychology. I this way, the forums systematically over-emphasize extreme luck (good and bad). But we don't hear from them, because they don't post, because nothing remarkable has happened to them. The problem with your study is that you chose to conduct it after it happened, right? I mean, for every player who has 1/500 bad luck like you, there are about 499 players who have 499/500 luck. The likelihood of this occuring, 9 times in a row is quite quite small (0.3^9= 0.002%). This may be from pure bad luck but I've tried a 70% success rate forge 9 times now on 4*/5* items later levels with no success whatsoever. That is, my data are consistent with the stated rates. My forging data are not published anywhere, but my preliminary analysis agrees with Skepticraven's.
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